盡管氣電在發展過程中面臨諸多困難，但具備清潔環保、節能、調峰能力強等優點，具有較大發展潛力，內外部環境的改善也為我國氣電產業發展帶來了良好機遇。

　　Although gas power faces many difficulties in its development, it has the advantages of being clean and environmentally friendly, energy-saving and efficient, and having strong peak shaving capabilities. It has great potential for development, and the improvement of internal and external environment has also brought good opportunities for the development of China's gas power industry.

　　2016年，美國天然氣首次超過煤炭，成為最主要的發電來源。供應充裕、價格低廉以及清潔成為美國天然氣發電產業近年來快速發展的重要動力。對于我國來說，盡管在國家政策支持下，氣電已經成為我國天然氣利用的重要領域，但在我國整個電力結構中的比例還很小，煤電和水電仍是我國發電的主要來源。2016年，我國氣電裝機容量7008萬千瓦，僅占總發電裝機容量的4.3%；氣電發電量1881億千瓦時，僅占總發電量的3.1%。

　　In 2016, natural gas surpassed coal for the first time in the United States, becoming the primary source of electricity generation. Abundant supply, low prices, and clean and efficient have become important driving forces for the rapid development of the natural gas power generation industry in the United States in recent years. For China, although gas power has become an important field for natural gas utilization with the support of national policies, its proportion in the entire power structure is still very small, and coal-fired and hydroelectric power are still the main sources of electricity generation in China. In 2016, China's installed capacity of gas and electricity was 70.08 million kilowatts, accounting for only 4.3% of the total installed capacity of power generation; The gas-fired power generation capacity is 1881 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for only 3.1% of the total power generation.

　　與美國相比，我國氣電在電力產業中僅能發揮補充調解的功能。一方面，這與我國氣電產業發展較晚有關；另一方面，也體現出我國氣電產業仍存在一些尚未理順的問題。一是國家還未出臺氣電總體戰略，氣電產業發展更多是在天然氣利用政策以及能源發展規劃中提及，國家對氣電的態度也因能源市場環境變化而經常改變。二是氣電經濟性還不高，一些進口氣源合約價格過高，天然氣輸配層級過多，導致發電企業利潤空間下降，天然氣價格管制很難反映市場供需關系。三是氣電上網制度還不完善，發電成本與上網電價間缺乏聯動機制，上網電價沒有對氣電的環保因素進行必要補償，這與國家加快清潔能源利用的初衷是不相吻合的。

　　Compared with the United States, China's gas and electricity can only play a supplementary and mediating role in the power industry. On the one hand, this is related to the relatively late development of China's gas and electricity industry; On the other hand, it also reflects that there are still some unresolved issues in China's gas and electricity industry. One reason is that the country has not yet formulated an overall strategy for gas and electricity, and the development of the gas and electricity industry is mainly mentioned in natural gas utilization policies and energy development plans. The country's attitude towards gas and electricity also frequently changes due to changes in the energy market environment. Secondly, the economic viability of gas and electricity is not yet high. Some imported gas source contracts have excessively high prices, and there are too many levels of natural gas transmission and distribution, resulting in a decrease in profit margins for power generation companies. Natural gas price control is difficult to reflect market supply and demand relationships. The third issue is that the system for connecting gas and electricity to the grid is not yet perfect, and there is a lack of linkage mechanism between power generation costs and grid electricity prices. The grid electricity prices have not provided necessary compensation for the environmental factors of gas and electricity, which is inconsistent with the original intention of the country to accelerate the utilization of clean energy.

　　盡管在產業發展過程中面臨諸多困難，但氣電具備清潔環保、節能、調峰能力強等優點，具有較大發展潛力，內外部環境的改善也為我國氣電產業發展帶來了良好機遇。

　　Despite facing many difficulties in the process of industrial development, gas and electricity have the advantages of clean and environmentally friendly, energy-saving and efficient, and strong peak shaving ability, which have great development potential. The improvement of internal and external environment also brings good opportunities for the development of China's gas and electricity industry.

　　一是經濟社會發展的環保要求使我國天然氣發展空間更加廣闊。以煤炭為主的一次能源消費結構已經給我國環境造成了大破壞，尤其是近年來霧霾越來越嚴重。無論是對內提升經濟發展質量，還是對外展示節能減排負責任的大國形象，我國都必須大力推行清潔發展。與煤炭、石油相比，天然氣更加清潔;與新能源相比，天然氣更具發展規模、經濟性更強、利用技術更完善。《天然氣發展“十三五”規劃》提出到2020年天然氣發電裝機規模達到1.1億千瓦以上，占發電總裝機比例超過5%;《關于加快推進天然氣利用的意見(征求意見稿)》提出到2020年天然氣發電總裝機規模達到1.5億千瓦，天然氣發電用氣約1000億立方米。與2016年相比，“十三五”期間我國天然氣發電新增裝機容量將達到0.4至0.8億千瓦，增幅為57%至114%。

　　Firstly, the environmental protection requirements of economic and social development have made the development space of natural gas in China even broader. The primary energy consumption structure dominated by coal has caused great damage to China's environment, especially in recent years when smog has become increasingly severe. Whether it is improving the quality of economic development internally or showcasing a responsible national image of energy conservation and emission reduction externally, China must vigorously promote clean development. Compared to coal and oil, natural gas is cleaner and more efficient; Compared with new energy, natural gas has a larger development scale, stronger economy, and more complete utilization technology. The 13th Five Year Plan for Natural Gas Development proposes that by 2020, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation will reach over 110 million kilowatts, accounting for more than 5% of the total installed capacity of power generation; The "Opinions on Accelerating the Utilization of Natural Gas (Draft for Comments)" proposes that by 2020, the total installed capacity of natural gas power generation will reach 150 million kilowatts, and the gas consumption for natural gas power generation will be about 100 billion cubic meters. Compared with 2016, the newly installed capacity of natural gas power generation in China during the 13th Five Year Plan period will reach 40 to 80 million kilowatts, an increase of 57% to 114%.

　　二是全球天然氣市場供應寬松使我國天然氣進口來源更加豐富。近年來，油氣勘探開發技術不斷取得突破，美國“頁巖氣革命”使全球天然氣供需格局發生深刻變化。全球油氣市場已經由供應偏緊轉換為供應寬松，由賣方市場轉換為買方市場。由于供應充裕，2014年以來，全球天然氣價格持續下降，目前已處于歷史低位。今年2月，東南亞LNG基準價格約為1.73元/立方米，僅為2014年價格高點的37%。由于全球油氣需求持續低迷，可以預見天然氣價格近期內持續低位徘徊的可能性較大。天然氣價格大幅下降將有效減少氣電的原料成本劣勢。供應充裕的市場格局還使一些產氣大國天然氣出口預期增強，這為我國豐富進口氣來源，彌補國內產量和消費量缺口提供了更多選擇。隨著天然氣供應充裕，在民用天然氣能夠得到充分保障后，國家可能會調整氣電定位，從調峰發電逐步轉向基荷發電，并將氣電從可中斷用戶變成連續供應用戶。一旦如此，不僅能夠提高氣電效率，也能降低發電成本，對提升氣電經濟性具有大好處。

　　Secondly, the loose supply in the global natural gas market has made China's natural gas import sources more abundant. In recent years, breakthroughs have been made in oil and gas exploration and development technology, and the "shale gas revolution" in the United States has brought profound changes to the global natural gas supply and demand pattern. The global oil and gas market has shifted from tight supply to loose supply, and from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Due to abundant supply, global natural gas prices have continued to decline since 2014 and are currently at historic lows. In February of this year, the benchmark price of LNG in Southeast Asia was about 1.73 yuan/cubic meter, only 37% of the high point in 2014. Due to the continued sluggish global demand for oil and gas, it is foreseeable that natural gas prices are likely to remain low in the near future. The significant decrease in natural gas prices will effectively reduce the disadvantage of raw material costs for gas and electricity. The market pattern of abundant supply has also increased the expectations for natural gas exports in some gas producing countries, providing more choices for China to enrich its sources of imported gas and make up for the domestic production and consumption gap. With abundant natural gas supply and sufficient guarantee of civilian natural gas, the country may adjust the positioning of gas and electricity, gradually shifting from peak load power generation to base load power generation, and transforming gas and electricity from interruptible users to continuous supply users. Once this is done, it can not only improve the efficiency of gas and electricity, but also reduce the cost of power generation, which has great benefits for improving the economy of gas and electricity.

　　三是油氣體制改革使我國天然氣產業更加市場化。油氣體制改革作為我國深化改革的重要內容，大幕已經拉開。特別是去年以來，天然氣市場化改革進程加快。國家發改委和能源局先后頒布了多個文件推進改革，涉及價格體制改革、市場結構優化等多個方面，主要包括化肥用氣價格市場化、加強地方天然氣輸配管理、油氣管網設施信息公開、儲氣設施價格市場化等。對我國未來油氣格局變化具有重要意義的油氣體制改革具體方案很快就要推出。通過改革，預期天然氣氣源競爭將更加激烈，輸配層級將有效壓縮，這些都能有效降低氣電成本。另外，上海和重慶石油天然氣交易中心投入運行，為天然氣價格市場化提供了開放的交易平臺。改革提速將為我國天然氣產業發展逐步掃清體制障礙，有利于形成更有效率的產業體系，天然氣發電也將從中受益。

　　Thirdly, the reform of the oil and gas system has made China's natural gas industry more market-oriented. The reform of the oil and gas system, as an important part of China's deepening reform, has already begun. Especially since last year, the process of natural gas marketization reform has accelerated. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have successively issued multiple documents to promote reforms, involving price system reform, market structure optimization, and other aspects, mainly including market-oriented pricing of fertilizer gas, strengthening local natural gas transmission and distribution management, information disclosure of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, and market-oriented pricing of gas storage facilities. The specific plan for the reform of the oil and gas system, which is of great significance to the future changes in China's oil and gas landscape, will soon be launched. Through reform, it is expected that competition for natural gas sources will become more intense, and the level of transmission and distribution will be effectively compressed, which can effectively reduce the cost of gas and electricity. In addition, the Shanghai and Chongqing Oil and Gas Trading Centers have been put into operation, providing an open trading platform for the marketization of natural gas prices. The acceleration of reform will gradually clear institutional barriers for the development of China's natural gas industry, which is conducive to the formation of a more efficient industrial system, and natural gas power generation will also benefit from it.

　　四是國家明確鼓勵天然氣分布式能源項目的發展。《天然氣發展“十三五”規劃》提出鼓勵發展天然氣分布式能源等利用項目，有序發展天然氣調峰電站。在基荷和分布式兩種氣電模式上，國家更青睞天然氣分布式能源項目。一是天然氣分布式能源一般采用冷、熱、電三聯供形式，通過氣電余熱制熱或制冷，能大幅提高能源利用效率，且清潔低污染；二是天然氣分布式能源項目一般規模較小，非常適合于商場、醫院、園區等單體設施的供電、供熱和制冷；三是天然氣分布式能源項目發電可以采用“并網不上網”的模式，發電自用，避免了與煤電、水電上網競爭。

　　Fourthly, the country explicitly encourages the development of natural gas distributed energy projects. The 13th Five Year Plan for Natural Gas Development proposes to encourage the development of efficient utilization projects such as distributed energy for natural gas, and to develop natural gas peak shaving power stations in an orderly manner. In terms of both base load and distributed gas power modes, the country prefers natural gas distributed energy projects. Firstly, natural gas distributed energy generally adopts the form of triple supply of cooling, heating, and electricity, which can greatly improve energy utilization efficiency and be clean and low polluting by heating or cooling through gas electricity waste heat; Secondly, natural gas distributed energy projects are generally small-scale and very suitable for power supply, heating, and cooling of individual facilities such as shopping malls, hospitals, and parks; Thirdly, natural gas distributed energy projects can adopt a "grid connected without grid connected" mode for power generation, which is for self use and avoids competition with coal-fired and hydroelectric power grid connected.

　　我國推動天然氣產業加快發展的決定由來已久，但近年來始終不及預期，很難認為我國天然氣產業發展已經進入“黃金時期”，最本質的原因還在于市場機制不健全。而今，外部供應改善以及內部改革預期為我國天然氣以及氣電產業發展創造機會。期待油氣體制改革能夠順應外部市場改善的歷史機遇，推動我國天然氣和氣電產業發展進入真正的“黃金時期”。

　　The decision to accelerate the development of China's natural gas industry has a long history, but in recent years it has always fallen short of expectations. It is difficult to believe that the development of China's natural gas industry has entered a "golden age", and the most fundamental reason is that the market mechanism is not sound. Nowadays, the improvement of external supply and the expectation of internal reforms have created opportunities for the development of China's natural gas and gas power industries. We hope that the reform of the oil and gas system can adapt to the historical opportunity of external market improvement and promote the development of China's natural gas and gas power industries into a true "golden age".